Finland Faces Growing Regional Disparities in Upper Secondary Education Due to Declining Student Numbers
A new report by the Association of Finnish Municipalities warns that the availability of high-quality upper secondary education is at risk in many regions of Finland, primarily due to a sharp decline in student numbers. By 2040, the country is expected to have up to 21,000 fewer upper secondary school students than today, a reduction of over 20 percent (Yle). The decline is uneven across the country, with smaller municipalities and sub-regions experiencing a more rapid decrease in student numbers compared to Helsinki. As many as 57 sub-regions have already seen a decline in the number of 16-year-olds, with the largest drop reaching 74 percent (Ilta-Sanomat). This trend has already led to significant cost disparities in upper secondary education. According to the report, operating expenses per student in Helsinki average around €9,600, while in the Loviisa region, costs rise to nearly €21,000 per student. The high expenses in Loviisa are attributed to two small upper secondary schools serving different language groups (Yle).
Current Challenges and Future Risks
The report highlights that the issue is no longer a distant concern but a present reality in many areas. During Finland’s spring joint application process, 24 upper secondary schools received a maximum of ten first-priority applicants, while seven schools received only four applicants in the spring 2026 joint application process (Ilta-Sanomat). In Mänttä-Vilppula, Upper Pirkanmaa, the number of first-preference applicants to the local upper secondary school dropped from 52 last year to 33 this year, raising concerns about the school’s future viability (Yle). "Demographic change is no longer a future issue for upper secondary education—on many regions, the shift has been underway for a long time," says Teijo Koljonen, an upper secondary education expert at the Association of Finnish Municipalities (Yle).
The association warns that without immediate action, regional disparities in education accessibility will widen further. Kyösti Värri, Special Adviser at the Association of Finnish Municipalities, emphasizes the urgency of reforming the funding system for upper secondary education to prevent a collapse in student numbers (MTV Uutiset). Irmeli Myllymäki, Director of Education Affairs at the Association of Finnish Municipalities, adds that the decline will "genuinely impact upper secondary education" in the 2030s, driven by a prolonged drop in birth rates since the early 2010s. The steepest declines are projected for the early 2030s, with many sub-regions expected to see their student populations shrink by nearly half (Ilta-Sanomat). The smallest decreases are projected in the Helsinki and Turku regions (0–10 percent), while 24 municipalities face a roughly 50 percent reduction in student numbers.
Broader Implications for Education
The report also raises concerns about the potential impact on basic education in smaller municipalities. Many teachers currently work in both upper secondary schools and basic education, meaning that a thinning upper secondary school network could reduce the availability of skilled staff in primary and lower secondary education. "If the upper secondary school network thins out, the availability of skilled staff may also decline in basic education," Värri estimates (Yle). Additionally, the government’s decision to introduce tuition fees for non-EU/EEA students has already affected applicant numbers, with Mänttä-Vilppula reporting a drop in international applicants from 15 last year to nine this year (Yle).
Municipalities already finance nearly 70 percent of upper secondary education, and the Association of Finnish Municipalities calls for a reform of the funding system to address the growing disparities (Ilta-Sanomat). Susanna Huovinen, Deputy CEO of the Municipalities' Association, stresses the need for "locally tailored solutions to ensure that high-quality upper secondary education can be secured across Finland in the future" (Ilta-Sanomat).
Calls for Reform and Cooperation
Finland has 377 upper secondary schools, of which 315 are directly owned by municipalities (Union of Upper Secondary School Students). Three out of four municipalities provide upper secondary education, but one-tenth of schools have a maximum of 45 students. Myllymäki urges municipalities to act swiftly, suggesting regional cooperation models such as mergers, shared teaching arrangements, or municipal federations to maintain accessibility. "The focus should shift from walls to ensuring that upper secondary education remains accessible," she says (Yle). However, she acknowledges that the network will inevitably become sparser, with difficult decisions ahead.
Remote upper secondary schools, such as Nettilukio in Mikkeli, are not seen as a primary solution to the declining student numbers, despite their role in providing education to students in remote areas (Yle). Miia Sivén, principal of Nettilukio, notes that while the school enables adults and minors with valid reasons to complete their studies remotely, it cannot replace traditional upper secondary schools for most young students. "If the responsibility for youth upper secondary schools were given to adult upper secondary schools, these young people would receive only half the curriculum," Sivén explains (Yle). Nettilukio currently has 900 degree students, of whom fewer than a hundred are minors within the scope of compulsory education.
Pietari Meriläinen, chair of the Union of Upper Secondary School Students (SLL), supports hybrid teaching models but warns against moving all upper secondary education online (Yle). He calls for "national quality criteria and guidelines for remote teaching" to ensure consistent standards (Yle). SLL advocates for regional obligations related to starting places to prevent students from having to relocate due to the lack of local upper secondary education (Yle).
18 May, 15:03: updated with new details on regional declines, funding reforms, and perspectives on remote education solutions
